The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, increasing the likelihood of above-normal activity due to record-warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has raised the chances of an above-normal hurricane season to 60%, up from the 30% predicted in May. The chances of a near-normal season have dropped to 25%, and the chance of a below-normal season is at 15%.

The updated forecast calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), with 6-11 of those expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Among those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). The forecast has a 70% confidence level and includes the storms that have already formed in the season.

So far, the Atlantic basin has experienced an active start to the hurricane season, with five storms reaching at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane. An average hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, explained the primary climate factors driving the revised outlook: the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which includes the record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The El Nino is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a greater than 95% chance, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center. However, the usual limiting atmospheric conditions associated with El Nino have been slow to develop, and climate scientists predict that these conditions may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.

Other factors influencing the updated seasonal forecast include a below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds, and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon. These elements are known to contribute to a more favorable environment for tropical cyclone development.

It's crucial to note that NOAA's hurricane outlooks provide a forecast of overall season activity, not specific landfalls. A storm's landfall is generally the result of mesoscale weather patterns and can typically be predicted within approximately one week of a storm approaching land.

Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, emphasized the importance of preparedness during this active hurricane season. NOAA urges individuals, families, and communities in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels. New tools, such as the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, and the expansion of the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook to seven days, have been introduced to enhance NOAA's forecasting capabilities and services.

Given the heightened risks of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, it's essential to be prepared for potential power outages, particularly for extended periods during and after a storm. One critical aspect of preparedness is considering the installation of a whole home backup generator to keep the power on during hurricane events. This measure can help ensure the safety and comfort of families and protect homes and properties during severe weather.

APElectric has an extensive inventory of in stock generators made by some of the most popular manufacturers in the country.

Visit the company’s website for more information at www.apelectric.com or call 847-516-8882 M-F from 8 to 5 PM Central.

(Image credit: NOAA)