Although the Atlantic hurricane season for 2022 doesn’t start until June 1, AccuWeather, the experts in hurricane season predictions have come up with its predictions and it should be on everyone’s mind due to the recent intense hurricane seasons we have witnessed recently. Many communities are still trying to recover from devastating storms over the last couple of years.

According to the forecast, there is a chance for a preseason storm and it warns that this season will be an active one.

The 2020 hurricane season was historic with extraordinary activity. Unprecedented levels of severe storms set records including the number of name storms –- 30.

Although the 2021 season wasn’t as bad, it was still worst than previous seasons with 21 named storms, making it the third most active on record as far as named systems is concerned. Moreover, the entire list of designated storm names was used for the second straight season.

AccuWeather cautions to be prepared for another severe hurricane season this year. The group is predicting a higher-than-normal chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the mainland United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The AccuWeather team is forecasting 16-20 named storms and six to eight hurricanes. About three to five of that number is expected to achieve major hurricane status. Major hurricane status is when a storm achieves a category 3 strength rating with winds greater than 111 mph or higher.

The prediction of 16-20 named storms is greater than the 30-year average of 14 per year. The projection of six to eight hurricanes is considered within the normal of seven. It is also almost identical to how things played out last year. Then, the 21 named storms included seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Eight of the storms made a direct impact on the U.S. As many as four to six storms are expected to have a direct impact in 2022.

This year’s long-range prediction is based on a study of a number of current weather trends, past hurricane seasons and climatological models.

La Niña

As in previous years, La Niña will be playing a role.

La Niña is a climatological phenomenon that helps shape weather patterns worldwide and is important in determining how active a hurricane season will be.

La Niña is a climatological pattern known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is a short-term climate fluctuation caused by the warming or cooling of the waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

When sea-surface temperatures are warm in this region of the Pacific and remain that way over a 12 to 18 month period, then the El Niño phase has started. When water temperatures are lower than average, a La Niña period is in effect. This is what occurred in the past two extremely active years. The amount of vertical wind shear in the atmosphere can be limited as westerly winds, which commonly stay farther to the north and away from the tropical Atlantic. A great amount of vertical wind shear, which commonly happens over the Atlantic during an El Niño frequently, hinders growing tropical cyclones.

The forecast declares that there is a weak La Niña occurring and it is expected to continue through the beginning of the tropical season. With less wind shear, there will be one fewer tropical interference. If this occurs, then there is the possibility that there may be more than 20 storms occurring this season.

If the prediction is correct, then that will use up the entire list of designated storm names for the third straight year in a row. This will cause the need of a supplemental list to supply any additional storm names.

This year’s names include:

• Alex
• Bonnie
• Colin
• Danielle
• Earl
• Fiona
• Gaston
• Hermine
• Ian
• Julia
• Karl
• Lisa
• Martin
• Nicole
• Owen
• Paula
• Richard
• Shary
• Tobias
• Virginie
• Walter

The status of the La Niña will be watched throughout the summer. If its phase fades away over the summer or early fall, the tropical activity could be less before the official end of the season on November 30.

Places Of Greatest Risk

Eight previous years show remarkable similarities to this year, according to the AccuWeather forecast. The most recent seasons of similarities are 2021, 2012, and 2001. It should be mentioned that because a storm hit a certain region of the U.S. in a previous year, it doesn’t mean there is going to be storms in the same areas this year. On the other hand, areas that weren’t impacted by storms in a given year are not less likely to be impacted this year.

Based on past landfall locations, the region with the greatest potential for direct impacts in the U.S. include the southeast Texas coast eastward through Florida, predominantly in the panhandle and the coast of the Carolinas.

An area of high pressure known as the Bermuda Azores high or the Bermuda high determines how close to the U.S. storms will approach as well as the timing for close encounters and direct hits. According to forecasters, the Bermuda high’s strength, orientation and position help to steer storms away or toward the U.S.

In the first part of the season, the center of the Bermuda high will probably be well west of the Azores causing early season storms to be guided into or close to U.S. shores.

In the later part of the season, the center of the high-pressure area will move northeast over the Azores. This suggests that more, but not necessarily all, storm could curve north and then northeast taking them away from the U.S.

Regardless of where you live, it is best to be prepared. When there is a severe hurricane season, residents of the areas most impacted are sure to experience major power outages. There is time for you to consider purchasing a standalone generator to assure that your home will receive power when utilities in the area suffer outages.

APElectric stocks a wide range of generators that activate automatically when there is a power outage. This assures that you and your family will remain in comfort during the worst of the storms. Visit the company’s website to review the available stock and learn how to select the most appropriate generator for your particular situation.